Four teams have clinched a spot in the Premier Lacrosse League postseason. New York, Maryland, Boston, and Denver have locked up their spot, with the first three also locking up a top four finish and spot in the PLL Championship Series. Philadelphia has been eliminated from postseason contention. That leaves three teams - Utah, Carolina, and California - vying for the last two spots in the postseason. On top of that, first place in the Western Conference is still up for grabs, which comes with a first round bye. Byes aside, these are the scenarios that can get each team in the postseason.
CALIFORNIA REDWOODS
The opponent this weekend is Utah, and it's already a playoff game for California. The Redwoods are by far the longest shot to make the playoffs. Their 3-6 record is only a game in the win column behind Utah and Carolina. But the Redwoods point differential is an abysmal -31. Carolina sits at -9 and Utah is at +4. Any chance for Carolina to make the playoffs requires them to win, and then it’s about the differential.
California needs to win. They can start with a massive margin on Friday night. They need to erase a 35 point margin in the point differential column to catch Utah. So a win by 18 or more goals over Utah. That would give California and Utah both four wins, and California would be at a -13 point differential while Utah would be at -14. Utah plays again on Saturday in the last game of the weekend. Utah would need to also lose that game, or win it by less than the amount they’re trailing California after a historic blowout on Friday night, for the Redwoods to get in. The sum here, California is in and Utah is out if Utah loses twice, by a combined margin of enough to erase the 35 goal margin deficit.
The other way California gets in is with a win by any margin and some help. If they beat Utah but by a small margin, they need Carolina’s point differential to drop. If California wins and Boston beats Carolina, and the scoring margins in those two games combined are 22+ goals, than California jumps over Carolina and into the playoff field.
Nothing about either one of those is an easy ride to the playoffs, but the Redwoods are mathematically alive. They can’t win the West, but they can still get in, and that kind of desperation can make for some electric lacrosse.
UTAH ARCHERS
Utah wins once and they are in. They beat California, they go to five wins, and make the playoffs. If they lose to California and beat Denver, they’re in. The Archers have a double header this weekend against California and Denver. A 2-0 weekend not only puts them in the playoffs, but wins them the West and a first round bye.
Utah can lose, even lose twice, and still get in. Because California’s point differential is so far in the negative, they have plenty of wiggle room to lose even both games and still hold the tiebreaker. If Utah loses twice, the combined margin would have to be 35+ goals for Utah to miss the playoffs and California to get in.
CAROLINA CHAOS
Carolina is win and in. They beat Boston, they go to five wins and the playoffs. If California loses, Carolina is in, regardless of the outcome of Carolina against Boston.
They are in a bit more precarious of a position for point differential, sitting at -9 going into the weekend. If Carolina loses and California wins, and the scoring margins of those two games are 22+ goals or more to bring the scoring differential even, then California goes to the playoffs. If Carolina loses, the smaller the margin, the better chance they have of still making the postseason.
DENVER OUTLAWS
Denver is in the playoffs, regardless of the outcome of Saturday night’s game with Utah. The big interest on Saturday will come as a result of Friday’s results. If Utah wins on Friday night, then both Denver and Utah will be 5-4 heading into their game on Saturday. The winner will get to six wins, and win the west. If Utah loses Friday, Denver can win and win the west.
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