Week 13, and we are now fresh out of undefeated teams. The Seals handed Buffalo their first loss last week in the second half of a double header for the Bandits. We have reached the point in the season where it’s reasonable to start showing playoff picture graphics on broadcasts, looking at remaining schedules, and playing the “if the postseason started today” game. Teams in the middle of the pack, and the bottom of the standings, will start feeling the pressure to separate themselves. Here’s the Week 13 rundown.
FRIDAY
Who: Halifax Thunderbirds (5-4) vs Ottawa Black Bears (5-4)
Where: Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
When: 7:30pm EST
The Spread: Ottawa favored by 1.5 (+124), game total set at 21.5
Who: Las Vegas Desert Dogs (2-8) vs Colorado Mammoth (6-4)
Where: Ball Arena, Colorado
When: 9:00pm EST
The Spread: Colorado favored by 2.5 (-120), game total set at 24.5
Who: Saskatchewan Rush (8-2) vs Vancouver Warriors (5-5)
Where: Rogers Arena, Vancouver
When: 10:00pm EST
The Spread: Saskatchewan favored by 1.5 (-115), game total set at 21.5
SATURDAY
Who: Georgia Swarm (5-4) vs Toronto Rock (3-7)
Where: Paramount Fine Foods Centre, Toronto
When: 7:00pm EST
The Spread: Toronto favored by 1.5 (-110), game total set at 22.5
Who: Philadelphia Wings (5-5) vs Albany FireWolves (2-8)
Where: MVP Arena, Albany
When: 7:00pm EST
The Spread: Philadelphia favored by 1.5 (+114), game total set at 25.5
Who: Rochester Knighthawks (4-7) vs Calgary Roughnecks (6-4)
Where: WestJet Field at ScotiaBank Saddledome, Calgary
When: 9:00pm EST
The Spread: Calgary favored by 1.5 (-115), game total set at 25.5
Who: Buffalo Bandits (7-1) vs San Diego Seals (5-5)
Where: Pechanga Arena, San Diego
When: 10:00pm EST
The Spread: Buffalo favored by 2.5 (+110), game total set at 24.5
STORIES TO WATCH
Don’t poke the Buffalo
The Bandits took their first loss of the season last week. Toronto softened the Bandits up on Valentine’s Day, and San Diego finished the job a day later. Buffalo had a two goal lead late, but the legs started to look a little tired, and San Diego got two late ones, including a buzzer beater Zach Currier that sent the game to OT. There are different schools of thought on “is the first loss for an undefeated team good?” Some suggest getting it out of the way relieves pressure of an undefeated season, or a least a long run, while others say winning is winning and that’s always better than losing. In Buffalo’s case, they get a rare opportunity. They get the opportunity to avenge the loss this week. They’ll travel out west to play San Diego. Did the loss make the Bandits angry? We’ll find out Saturday night.
Toronto might be out of runway
Toronto got out to the 0-5 start, and we all said as soon as they get healthy they’ll be dangerous. And that’s proved to be true. The week that Tom Schreiber and TD Ierlan were activated (one week after Challen Rogers), the Rock started a three game winning streak. But they’ve now lost back to back games, both by a goal and against tough opponents. Toronto has now played five one goal games this year and lost four of them. The trouble is, because of the 0-5 hole, they really had no wiggle room to drop these nailbiter games the last two weeks. They jumped all over Buffalo early last week but couldn’t put the Bandits away. There is simply no more room for error for Toronto. Eight games to go, they probably need to win six of them to put themselves in the playoffs. The margin for error is just about zero at this point for the Rock.
What’s the magic number?
Right now there are eight teams with five or six wins, all sitting just behind Buffalo and Saskatchewan in the standings. Rochester is right there with that group at 4-7. Assuming Buffalo and Saskatchewan keep their winning ways up, only six of those teams make the postseason. Last year, the number was eight wins. And even then, it came down to tiebreakers between four teams five teams who had the eight wins to select just one of them. Nine wins is really the safer number. Colorado and Calgary are at six wins, both play teams with losing records this weekend. It’s a major opportunity to feel more secure about a playoff spot and separate a bit from the mayhem below them in the standings. Both teams are at home, in front of good crowds, it’s a massive opportunity to take control of their fates.
Time to start watching the race to the bottom
Las Vegas and Albany both are still at just two wins. Given how much schedule is remaining, the playoffs look like a serious long shot for both clubs. I’ll offer the caveat that we said the same thing about Vancouver last year, and the only thing that kept them out in the end was tiebreakers, but the sprint from two wins to 8-9 wins with just eight games remaining on the schedule is brutal. For Albany, seven of their remaining eight games come against a team that currently has a record of .500 or better. For Vegas, it’s six of their last eight games. The road is uphill to say the least. Players don’t tank, front offices do, and neither of these front offices could be accused of that based on moves made so far this year. So it’s not like teams will start playing for draft position. But the bottom of the standings bear watching starting now.