Conference Tournament scenarios across DI men's lacrosse. Who's in, who's out, and who's still playing for a spot

It’s the last weekend of regular season men’s college ball. Across DI, teams are playing to host a tournament, a high seed, or even just to keep their season alive. Some conferences have already set the field for their respective tournaments. Some are still wide open. Others are even getting underway, as the Big Ten quarters get going on Saturday in Ann Arbor. It’s a lot to track, here’s what is at stake for each conference. 

ACC

Locked: Notre Dame, North Carolina, Syracuse

Still Alive: UVA, Duke

Eliminated: None

Two things need to be decided. Seeding and the fourth spot. UVA and Duke play this weekend at Virginia, the winner of that game is in the tournament as the four seed, loser is out. Notre Dame plays Lafayette this weekend, that has no bearing on the ACC, they finish 3-1 in conference. Syracuse and North Carolina will determine the order. If Syracuse wins, they’ll be the top seed at 3-1 with a head to head win over Notre Dame. If UNC wins, Notre Dame will be the top seed. UNC and Notre Dame will both be 3-1, with ND owning the head to head. 

AMERICA EAST

Locked: UMBC, Bryant, Albany

Still Alive: Vermont, Binghamton

Eliminated: UMass Lowell, NJIT

UMBC takes on Holy Cross this weekend, so they’re record is set at 5-1. Albany plays the eliminated NJIT, Bryant plays the eliminated UMass Lowell, and Vermont and Binghamton play each other. 

Bryant can get the top seed if they win because they have the head to head win over UMBC. Albany is locked because they’re 3-2, but beat both Vermont and Binghamton, so they own the head to head tiebreaker over the loser of that game. Win or lose, Albany is in. 

The Vermont vs Binghamton game is essentially a first round play-in game. Winner is the fourth team in, the loser is done. Binghamton can only make it as the four seed, Vermont can still be as high as the two if they win, Bryant loses, and Albany loses.

ASUN

Locked: Utah, Jacksonville, Air Force

Still Alive: Bellarmine, Mercer

Eliminated: Queens

Utah and Air Force play this weekend. Jacksonville plays Mercer. Bellarmine plays Queens. Utah is the one seed with a win, Bellarmine is in with a win.

If Utah, Jacksonville, and Bellarmine win, the field is, from one to four Utah, Jacksonville, Air Force, and Bellarmine. 

If Utah, Mercer, and Bellarmine win, the field is Utah, Jacksonville, Air Force, and Bellarmine.

If Utah, Mercer, and Queens win, the field is Utah, Jacksonville, Air Force, and Mercer.

If Air Force, Mercer, and Bellarmine win, the field is Air Force, Utah, Jacksonville, and Bellarmine.

If Air Force, Mercer, and Queens win, the field is Air Force, Utah, Jacksonville, and Mercer. 

If Air Force, Jacksonville, and Bellarmine win, it’s complex. There is a 3 way tie at the top for the one seed between Air Force, Utah, and Jacksonville, all 4-1. They are all 1-1 against each other. The next tie breaker is against the highest team not involved in the tie, in this case it’s Bellarmine. All three beat Bellarmine. Next up is Mercer and all three beat Mercer. Finally, all three beat Queens. Next up is record vs common out of conference opponents. The three of them don’t have any. Next up is goal differential between the tied teams, with a differential capped at eight in any contest. Jacksonville is +1 (beat Air Force by four, lost to Utah by three), Air Force is -4 going into the weekend (lost to JU by four), Utah is +3 (beat JU by three). So in this scenario, if Air Force wins by at least five goals, they’re the one seed, JU is the two, and Utah the three. If Air Force wins by exactly one goal, Utah is the one, JU the two, and Air Force the three. Let’s hope this doesn’t happen because my brain hurts. 

ATLANTIC 10

Locked: Richmond, High Point

Still Alive: St Joseph’s (Host), UMass, Hobart

Eliminated: St Bonaventure

Richmond is locked as the one seed. Even if they lose, they’ll be 4-1 with a head to head win over High Point, who will be the two seed. High Point plays the Bonnies this weekend, and barring a massive upset, the Panthers are the two seed. St Joseph’s is in with a win over Richmond. A loss drops them to 2-3, and at that point, eyes turn to the Hobart vs UMass game.

If St Joe’s loses at UMass wins, St Joe’s and UMass are in as the four seed and three seed respectively. If St Joe’s loses and UMass loses, that creates a three way tie between St Joes, UMass, and Hobart; they’d all be 2-3. 

They're all 1-1 against each other, so can’t break the tie that way. The next tiebreaker is winning percentage against common conference opponents. They’d all be at .400. The next tiebreaker is each team’s winning percentage vs high common opponents in conference standings. All three will have lost to Richmond, All three lost to High Point, all three beat the Bonnies. The next tiebreaker is the goal differential between the tied teams. St Joe’s +8 against Hobart, -1 against UMass, so net +7. UMass is +1 against St Joe’s, they would need to be absolutely blown out by Hobart, because Hobart is -8 against St Joe’s. In this scenario, Hobart is almost certainly the team left out. 

BIG EAST

Locked: Georgetown, Villanova

Still Alive: Denver, Providence, Marquette

Eliminated: St John’s

Georgetown and Villanova play this weekend to determine the one seed. Villanova is at worst the two seed. After that, things are in flux.

Denver and Providence enter the weekend at 2-2, Marquette at 1-3. Denver plays Marquette, Providence plays St John’s. At 0-4, the Johnnies are already out.

If Denver wins, they are in. Denver win, Providence win, and Georgetown win results the field being, one to four, Georgetown, Villanova, Providence, Denver.

If Denver wins, Providence loses, and Georgetown wins. Denver becomes three and Providence the four. 

If Denver wins, and both Providence and Georgetown lose, Denver is the two seed, Georgetown is the three seed, and Providence the four. 

If Denver loses, but both Providence and Georgetown win, then Georgetown is the one seed, Villanova the two, Providence the three, and Marquette the four. 

If Denver loses, Providence loses, and Georgetown wins, Georgetown is the one, Nova the two. There’s a three way tie between Denver, Providence, and Marquette for the last two spots.

If Denver, Providence, and Georgetown all lose, Villanova is the one, Georgetown is the two, and there’s a three way tie between Denver, Providence, and Marquette for the last two spots.

BIG TEN

Locked: Ohio State, Maryland, Penn State, Michigan (Host), Rutgers, Johns Hopkins

Still Alive: None

Eliminated: None

This tournament is set. Quarterfinals are set at Penn State vs Hopkins and Michigan vs Rutgers, played this weekend on BTN+. 

CAA

Locked: Towson (Host), Fairfield, Hofstra, Drexel 

Still Alive: None

Eliminated: Delaware, Stony Brook, Monmouth, Hampton

The CAA field is locked up, and Towson is locked in as the one seed. Fairfield plays Monmouth this weekend, Hofstra plays Towson, and Drexel plays Delaware. Fairfield, Drexel and Hofstra can all finish anywhere from the two to four seed. If any one of those teams win while the others lose, that team is the two seed. 

Fairfield is the two with a win over Monmouth; they have wins over Hofstra and Drexel.

Hofstra and Drexel win and Fairfield loses, the two seed goes to Drexel, the three to Hofstra, and the four to Fairfield. 

IVY

Locked: Cornell (Host), Princeton, Harvard, Yale

Still Alive: None

Eliminated: Dartmouth, Penn, Brown

The field is locked, and Cornell is locked as the one seed. Princeton and Yale play this weekend, Harvard plays Brown.

If Princeton wins, they’re the two seed, Harvard the three, and Yale the four. 

If Yale wins and Harvard loses, Yale is the two seed, Princeton the three, and Harvard the four. 

If Yale and Harvard win, there’s a four way tie at 4-2 under Cornell. All three teams would be 1-1 against the others. Next tiebreaker is record against highest seeded team, all three lost to Cornell. I am assuming we go down the standings past the three tied teams to the team ranked 5th, who in this scenario is Dartmouth. All three beat Dartmouth, all three beat Penn, and all three will have beaten Brown. The next tiebreaker is adding goals for and against in the games between the tie teams. The best goal differential wins, six goals max per game. Harvard is –2 against Princeton and +3 against Yale, netting to +1. Yale is -3 against Harvard, Princeton is +2 against Harvard. It would come down to the differential in that game to break the tie. Yale has to win by at least five goals for things to come to this. 

MAAC

Locked: Sacred Heart (Host), Siena, Canisius, Marist, Manhattan, Quinnipiac

Still Alive: None

Eliminated: Mount St Mary’s, Merrimack, Iona

The field was set following the results mid week. Sacred Heart and Siena share the regular season conference crown, but SHU hosts and is the one seed because they have the head to head win. Canisius is the three seed and will play Quinnipiac who sneaks in as the six on tiebreakers. Marist and Manhattan are the four and five respectively. 

NEC

Locked: Robert Morris, Le Moyne, LIU

Still Alive: VMI, Detroit Mercy, Cleveland State

Eliminated: Wagner, Mercyhurst

Robert Morris and Le Moyne play for the one seed this weekend. Le Moyne hosting their conference tournament in just their second season of DI competition would be a great story. Robert Morris can’t finish worse than the two seed. 

LIU is in, they play VMI this weekend. Detroit Mercy plays Cleveland State. Mercyhurst and Wagner play each other but can’t impact the standings at all. The only spot that can still be claimed is the four seed, and VMI has the inside track. 

VMI is win and in. If VMI loses, things get interesting. A VMI loss and Cleveland State wins means that VMI, Detroit Mercy, and Cleveland State will all be 3-4.

If VMI loses and Detroit Mercy wins, per the NEC site, the 4 seed is determined by fewest goals allowed in head to head matchups between Cleveland State, Detroit Mercy, and VMI. 

VMI allowed 19 goals in their two games against Cleveland State and Detroit Mercy. 

Cleveland State allowed 11 vs VMI, they’d need to allow more than 8 against Detroit Mercy to be eliminated in this scenario. So if Cleveland State wins 10-9, they’re still out. 

Detroit Mercy allowed nine goals vs VMI. they’d need to lose by double digits to be eliminated. 

PATRIOT LEAGUE

Locked: Army, Boston U, Lehigh, Colgate

Still Alive: Lafayette, Loyola, Navy

Eliminated: Holy Cross

Always the messiest. Let’s just stick to how these teams get in and who hosts. Army hosts with a win over Loyola this weekend. The worst seed Army can be is the two. BU can host with a win over Colgate and an Army loss to Loyola. Those are the only two possible teams to host the tournament. 

Lafayette is eliminated in some very specific scenarios. If Loyola, Navy, and Lehigh all win, Lafayette is out. Any other combination they are still in.

Loyola is eliminated if they and Bucknell both lose. Otherwise, they are in, but they best they can be is the five seed. If they, Lehigh, and Navy win, they are the five seed, otherwise if they make it they’re six. 

Navy is eliminated if they lose, full stop. They can also win and not make it. A Navy win along with a Loyola, BU, and Lafayette win eliminates Navy. A Navy win along with a Loyola win AND a Lafayette win also eliminates Navy.